My two cents worth: I think we know the number of Marbled Murrelets based
on the ones we see feeding offshore. Much like the Spotted Owl, but less
charasmatic, the Marbled Murrelet is an indicator species with very
specific habitat requirements. We know that they need old growth forest in
river drainages for nesting. If the remaining coastal old growth is cut in
Oregon, Washington,Canada and SE Alaska the MAMU is very likely to be
*extirpated* (no more in that particular region) but not *extinct* (as a
species.) The MAMU in South Central Alaska appear to be ground nesters as
much as tree nesters and seem to be in pretty good shape, at least in
Prince William Sound. However, there are plans to log much of the coastal
forest there, which would have the same effect as logging coastal old
growth elsewhere. There are also plans to purchase some of these lands with
Exxon Valdez mitigation funds; I'm not aware of progress on this front.

The piecemeal extirpation of a species can, of course, lead to relict
populations and ultimate extinction when the few remaining birds
(especially if they are colonial nesters) don't have a sufficiently diverse
gene pool, succumb to an environmental disaster (e.g. big wind storm,
invasion by predators ) or lose their remaining habitat. The "timber
rider" will definitely speed up this process. Are Marbled Murrelets in
danger of extinction? Not yet. But they are extirpated, threatened and
endangered, depending on where you look.

The "timber rider" itself ultimately is bad law because it is intended to
circumvent normal legislative/judicial processes, removing recourse to the
courts. (Of course, the courts don't always rule in "our" favor; witness
the recent rulings in a District Court in Oregon.) Moreover, its most
odious provision requires that MAMU nesting be known, or words to that
effect, to prevent timber harvest. The number of "known" nest sites is
very small because they are so hard to find. IMO the Clinton
Administration was snookered on this one.

h.curl at hazmat.noaa.gov "You may be only young once but you can be
Hazmat/NOAA, 7600 Sand Pt. Wy., NE immature the rest of your life."
Seattle, WA 98115-0070
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