Subject: Re: Counter intuitive to El Nino
Date: Jul 9 00:32:16 1997
From: jcbowling at mindlink.bc.ca - jcbowling at mindlink.bc.ca


Mike Patterson wrote -

> Well, well...
>
> Horned Puffin in Brookings; Yellow-billed Loon below the OR/CA border
> (and Bar-tailed Godwit)
>
> A report from Shearwater tours for Cordell Banks, Monterey CA with no
> unexpected southern specialties.
>
> If this keeps up, we'll be obliged to accept the null hypothesis equating
> bird movements to el Nino.
>
> And before any body asks "What about Elegant Terns?" here's and alternate
> hypothesis for them that folks who've been birding Oregon and Washington
> for more than 20 years... What about Brown Pelican? What about Caspian
> Tern?

While not an OR/CA birder, I would caution that this current positive phase of
the Southern Oscillation/El Nino event has only just begun. Forecast peak is
around December 1997/Janurary 1998. It takes a while for the repercussions of
warmer sea temperatures to ripple up the chain. Give it some time.

- Jack


Jack Bowling
Prince George, BC
jcbowling at mindlink.bc.ca