Mike et al.,

I see no obvious link between el nin~o phenomena and the number of
post-breeding reverse migrant juvenile Tropical [presumably] Kingbirds.
Though if there were contrary winds at the time the young were beginning to
head "south" or to disperse, pointing them this way instead, that might
explain it. This apparently is what drives Blackpoll Warbler vagrancy
patterns in California, according to Dave DeSante's dissertation.

And I agree it is most astounding that there'd be 12 Macs and 3 Nahvilles
not to mention the GT Towhee there in Pt. Angeles.

Gene.


At 07:41 PM 11/6/97 -0800, you wrote:
>
>
>What with 8 Tropical Kingbirds in Oregon, at least 4 in
>Washington and 2 in British Columbia along with a Scissor-
>tailed Flycatcher in Coos County (a banner year for this
>Tyrants.) I thought it was useful to ask: can we blame this on
>El Nino like everything else?
>
>I sorted through OBRC records and _Oregon Birds_ field notes
>to see what years were kingbird years. One would have, at least,
>expected a strong spike in 1982 if there was any close correlation
>and there is none. This of course does not exclude the possibility
>that this years kingbird push wasn't caused by...say...all
>those eastern Pacific hurricanes or the unseasonably pleasant fall
>we're having, both of which are El Nino related. It just doesn't
>appear to be a pattern followed by previous events.
>
> 76 x
> 77
>en---->78
> 79 x
> 80
> 81 xxx
> 82 xx
>en---->83 xx
> 84 xx
> 85
> 86 xx
>en---->87
> 88
> 89
> 90 x
> 91 x
>en---->92
> 93 xx
>en---->94 x
> 95 x
> 96
>en---->97 xxxxxxxx
>
>
>--
>********************************* I am but mad north-north-west;
>* Mike Patterson, Astoria, OR * when the wind is southerly,
>* mpatters at orednet.org * I know a hawk from a handsaw.
>http://www.pacifier.com/~mpatters -ws
>
>