Given the curious mix of temperate weather, increased observer effort and
some genuinely unusual sightings, I think it not unreasonable to expect an
outbreak of "Rarities Disease." The expectation that there should be rarities
can occlude one's judgement and sense of healthy skepticism.

In several recent post, I've noticed a few symptoms. Consider the following:

1. While the recent spate of pleasant weather has probably affected
the departure time for some short distance migrants, it has also made
it more pleasant for observers to go out looking. It is difficult to
separate increased observer effort from genuine late migration
phenomena. Species like Common Yellowthroat, Orange-crowned Warbler
and Morning Dove would all be borderline at this point.

2. The layover time for most rarities is about one day. One's chances
of finding a rarity the day after a report is about 1 in 3. I, for
one, have spent way more time identifying flickers in a effort to be
among those who've seen kingbirds this fall (one badly lit evening
I had to get within 20 meters of a flicker before I could convince
myself that it was not a kingbird). Even in a "special" year (and
maybe especially because) we need to ask the hard questions whether
what we are seeing is really what we're seeing.

And then there's that whole documentation thing. Don't assume others will
do the write-up. Don't assume that your claim will be accepted just because
"it's a special year." And keep those reports current. Nothing cheeses
off the group more than hearing about something 3 or 4 days after the fact.

--
*********************************
* Mike Patterson, Astoria, OR * What revolutionaries do best
* mpatters at orednet.org * is eat their own young
http://www.pacifier.com/~mpatters