On Mon, 13 Oct 1997, Michael Kennedy wrote:

> Does anyone know about the population status over the last few years
> on the Washington coast? Is this possibly as much the continuation
> of range expansion, as it is El Nino?

Between at least 1986 and 1996 thousands of Brown Pelicans could be
expected to show up in late summer each year on the Washington coast.
The mouth of the Columbia River, Willapa Bay, and Grays Harbor were the
main concentration areas though flocks could easily be observed along
the coast north of Grays Harbor, in places like Kalaloch Beach and
at Willoughby Rock. This pattern of late summer/early fall abundance
on Washington's southern coast seemed pretty consistent during this
period. This year, a dramatic change is evident.

I think your questions are excellent ones. I was questioned by a KOMO
news reporter on this very issue. They wanted some "authorative"
words to go with their film footage of Brown Pelicans on Blakely Rock
off Bainbridge Island in Puget Sound. I told the reporter it was an
unusual year. The reporter asked why. I said many people believe it
is because of warm surface water conditions, the El Nino condition.
"The fish that Brown Pelicans prefer to eat are likely more
broadly distributed in these northern waters and so the pelicans follow",
I said without a hint of faking my answer. The reporter asked me what
these fishes were and I then admitted I didn't really know (feeling
of stupidity sweeps over me).

Now interested to know the answers, I started asking others and heard
that anchovies were apparently being found in large numbers further
north than usual.

We may not know the answers to your questions (for sure) until several
more years go by so we can see how pelicans distribute themselves
under more normal sea suface conditions.

However, for me, I still think it's El Nino.

Kelly McAllister