I think it's probably appropriate to speculate on the early hummingbird
sightings of the past week.

1. How many of these reports are Anna's Hummingbirds. Many of them are
of hummingbirds without specific mention of species. Anna's Hummingbird
is a winter resident and typically starts moving around (to new sites) in
late January, early February. Anna's Hummingbird (at least in my experience)
is more likely to do the hover near the window trick (It radiates more heat
than a wall, you can see them, there are often spider egg masses...)

2. Early arrival _Selasphorus_ hummingbirds may not (technically) be
migrants. A male Rufous wintered in Portland and was recorded on on their
CBC. The mild winter may have convinced some (probably juvenile birds)
to stay around. This may be a testable hypothesis. Second year birds
will have (at least early in the season) incomplete gorgets. They *might*
also have more green on the back (tempting some to call them Allen's, don't
be fooled).

3. The crappy weather in California may have driven the migration northward
early. A check of California crappy weather vs arrival datas may test this
hypothesis. One might also want to look into the number of over-wintering
_Selasphorus_ in California this year for a secondary correlation.



>
>I know so little about statistics that for me trying to figure out means
>etc would be meaningless. All I know is that I have had customers come
>into to the store and ask for the hummingbird mixture because they have
>seen Rufous Hummingbirds already. Today one man told me he's had two
>hummingbirds at his feeders for two weeks now. They came and hovered
>where he ususally puts out his feeders as if begging. They've been back
>to the feeder now that he has put them out for this season. I'm putting
>mine out tomorrow.
>
>Yvonne Bombardier
>Everett, Wa
>ravenn at premier1.net
>
>

--
*********************************
* Mike Patterson, Astoria, OR *
* mpatters at orednet.org *
http://www.pacifier.com/~mpatters