Subject: Re: Bears and Pepper Spray
Date: Feb 22 08:02:43 1998
From: Don Baccus - dhogaza at pacifier.com


At 12:04 AM 2/22/98 -0900, Andrew & Rebecca Sorensen wrote:
>The odds cited are based on the number of people *reported* killed in North
>America by the black bear this century, as of 1990 - a total of 25 (The
>Great American Bear - by Jeff Fair and Lynn Rogers.) I agree that the odds
>would increase significantly as you enter the Alaska bush - yet the chance
>you'll end up dead by a black bear attack does remain rather small. The
>risk of injury would likely be somewhat higher.

>By the way, I have found the above referenced book to be an excellent one
>on the black bear.

Herrero has documented evidence of 23 deaths from black bear in 1960-1980
alone, do Fair and Rogers make an accounting for the difference? Not that
it's really meaningful - that's still just one death a year. Herrero may
treat things a bit differently, he points out that his data includes one
guy dying after being treed, and falling. Your folks may've defined "death
caused by black bear" differently and come up with a different answer.

Regardless, the point is that odds of being killed by black bear are
vanishingly small, whether it's 0.2 deaths per year or 1 death per year.

>"Most fear of bears comes from reading too much scare literature, talking
>to too many people who are afraid of them (it's catching) and spending too
>little time with actual bears." - Dr. Lynn Rogers

>He also tells us that Herrero's book offers us the most readable and
>objective treatment of the subject (Bear Attack's) but warns that the
>details and descriptions will, as always, tend to overshadow the realistic
>unlikelihood of bona fide attacks.

Only if the reader doesn't pay attention. Herrero's approach is to lay it
all out, unvarnished. He does try to help you avoid some of the logical
traps that folks fall into if they're not used to thinking statistically.
That was the point of the passage I quoted where he emphasized that his data
on black bears might lead one to erroneously conclude that black bears are
as dangerous as grizzly bears, but that close study makes it very, very
clear that this isn't true - as did the title of the chapter, "The Tolerant
Bear".

However, mostly he depends on your being able to think critically and to
follow the statistical approach.

He does give detailed descriptions of individual attacks, particularly
grizzly, which he admits are frightening. However, he makes it very
clear that he's decribing nearly every fatal attack he could dig up
in order to demonstrate various circumstances that lead to them (so you
can think in terms of avoiding such circumstances).

Some circumstance I'll have no problem avoiding, like wounding a grizzly
while hunting it, then following it into deep brush to finish it off...


- Don Baccus, Portland OR <dhogaza at pacifier.com>
Nature photos, on-line guides, and other goodies at
http://donb.photo.net