Eight contestants submitted their best predictions of the 21 most
widespread breeding-season species in Kitsap County, Washington, as
determined by the recently completed Kitsap County Breeding Bird
Atlas. Scores ranged from 11 correct answers to a high of 17. The
winning entry is from Jamie Acker of Bainbridge Island. Jamie missed
four of the top 21 (European Starling, Orange-crowned Warbler,
Brown-headed Cowbird, and American Goldfinch), substituting instead
four species that, while less widespread than the top 21, were indeed
found on a majority of atlas blocks (Olive-sided Flycatcher, Bewick's
Wren, Dark-eyed Junco, and House Finch).

Here is the list of species detected on >85 percent of the atlas
blocks, with the number in parentheses following each name
representing the percentage of blocks (n=64) on which it was found.

Pacific-slope Flycatcher (100)
American Crow (100)
Violet-green Swallow (100)
Chestnut-backed Chickadee (100)
Swainson's Thrush (100)
American Robin (100)
Wilson's Warbler (100)
Spotted Towhee (100)
Song Sparrow (100)
Red-breasted Nuthatch (98)
Steller's Jay (95)
White-crowned Sparrow (95)
American Goldfinch (95)
Barn Swallow (94)
European Starling (92)
Rufous Hummingbird (91)
Black-capped Chickadee (89)
Winter Wren (89)
Western Tanager (88)
Orange-crowned Warbler (86)
Brown-headed Cowbird (86)

In descending order, here are the other species found in >50 percent
of the blocks.

Purple Finch (84)
Black-headed Grosbeak (83)
Mallard (81)
Cedar Waxwing (81)
Northern Flicker (80)
Bewick's Wren (80)
Golden-crowned Kinglet (80)
Dark-eyed Junco (80)
Band-tailed Pigeon (77)
House Finch (75)
Black-throated Gray Warbler (70)
Willow Flycatcher (69)
Glaucous-winged Gull (67)
Red-winged Blackbird (67)
Olive-sided Flycatcher (66)
Pine Siskin (64)
Great Blue Heron (63)
Belted Kingfisher (63)
Pileated Woodpecker (63)
Canada Goose (61)
Killdeer (61)
Brown Creeper (61)
Warbling Vireo (59)
Hutton's Vireo (56)
Red-tailed Hawk (55)
House Sparrow (55)
Ring-necked Pheasant (53)
Red-breasted Sapsucker (53)
Common Yellowthroat (52)

Congratulations to Jamie and thanks to the others who participated
(Debie Brown, Michael Hobbs, John Neville, Bill Shelmerdine, Bob
Vandenbosch, Christine Vidai, and Charlie Wright). Not every
contestant broke predictions out by frequency (100%, >90%, >85%) so I
did not try to assess who might have "won" that part of the game.
But it looks like everyone had fun. Full results and analysis of the
Kitsap County Breeding Bird Atlas will be combined with those for
King and Kittitas Counties, also completed this past season, and
published in one form or another by Seattle Audubon in the next year
or two. We hope to generate maps using our GIS program early in the
process and get them up on the SAS web site.

Hal Opperman
Medina, Washington
mailto:halop at accessone.com