Subject: does it matter?
Date: Nov 21 11:13:25 2000
From: Hal Opperman - halop at accessone.com


I guess it is okay to discuss politics on Tweeters as long as one is
not partisan about it, and there is a connection to the natural
world. The following qualifies on both counts.

The next-to-the-most recent issue of *Science* (November 3) has a
short letter by E.A. Schultes of the Whitehead Center for Biomedical
Research in Cambridge, Mass. Schultes notes that many commentators
have found it impossible to distinguish between the two current U.S.
presidential candidates and their positions, and some have seen this
similarity as the inevitable consequence of globalization. "Despite
their best efforts to distinguish themselves," says Schultes,
"perhaps Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore appear similar because large-scale
communication, transportation, and economic networks have resulted in
a globally integrated political ecomomy with many conflicting
interactions."

For illumination of this phenomenon the author turns to the
theoretical work of S.A. Kaufman on evolutionary patterns in
biological systems -- the so-called "complexity catastrophe."
Basically, the more complicated a system becomes through addition of
greater numbers of interconnected, conflicting components, the more
difficult it becomes for favorable outcomes to occur. Bottom line?
"Overly connected, highly frustrated networks guarantee that (i) a
search for better configurations can do no better than a random
selection, and (ii) highly favorable configurations simply do not
exist. The complexity of the interactions ensures a catastrophic
loss of potential to improve beyond mediocrity."

Transferring this model to the political world, Schultes observes
that in a complex political economy "differences in principle and
means become irrelevant as each candidate faces the fact that
acceptable solutions to large-scale political problems are, at best,
hard to find, and, at worst, nonexistent.... Any policy decision
concerning large domestic or foreign programs...will necessarily
result in as much harm as benefit.... A random casting of votes
would, paradoxically, do as well as costly lobbying and political
analysis in directing national affairs."

And this was written *before* the election with its resulting
statistical stalemate. So much for the talking heads! Democracy on
a planetary scale, it seems, is designed to ensure its own survival
by making it impossible for either side in a high-stakes conflict to
obtain an evolutionary advantage.

Hal Opperman
Medina, Washington
mailto:halop at accessone.com