Sorting out migrants from over-wintering birds is going
to be especially problematic this year. If one examimes
the CBC counts for this year, one finds that the "rash"
seen in late December is partly an artifact of increased
effort associated with CBC's.

It is probably of value to evaluate what is meant by
"migrant". Is a bird that over-wintered in Oregon and
now moving into Washington a migrant in the same sense
as a migrant that wintered in Mexico? Both are migrating,
to be sure, but arrival from Oregon is not quite the
same feat that arriving from Mexico is.

There is lots of ground that doesn't get covered in
Oregon and Washington and my sense is that over-wintering
swallow flocks (not to be confused with the odd over-
wintering individual) are fairly nomadic. I'm not sure
that lack of reports in October and November translates
to early return of long distance migrants in January.

But I'm willing to be talked out of it.

Michael Dossett wrote:
>
> Of course I wrote the sudden rash of reports in late
> December and early November when I meant to say late
> December and early January.
>
> My apologies
>
> Michael Dossett
> Bothell, WA
> Phainopepla at yahoo.com
>
> --- Michael Dossett <phainopepla at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Hi Tweets,
> >
> > On the contrary, I think at this time we have to
> > assume that most of these birds DID migrate. The
> > lack
> > of reports in many areas from October through late
> > December followed by the sudden rash of reports in
> > late December and early November indicates that
> > these
> > birds were not present before. I sincerely doubt
> > that
> > the birds were present all along and never reported
> > by
> > anyone until January. A similiar phenomenon occured
> > last winter here as well as in British Columbia and
> > Oregon. If you recall, the first part of the winter
> > recieved no Barn Swallow reports and then in late
> > December and early January there were reports of
> > small
> > groups followed by larger numbers later on in the
> > winter. This is the same pattern that we are seeing
> > this winter.
> >
> > In short, I think given the lack of reports until
> > late
> > December followed by the sudden spate of them is not
> > due to lack of coverage or observer effort, but
> > indeed
> > reflects the likely-hood that these birds migrated
> > back north several months early rather than never
> > leaving at all.
> >
> > Michael Dossett
> > Bothell, WA
> > phainopepla at yahoo.com
> >
> > --- Blake Iverson <coopershwk at hotmail.com> wrote:
> > > These birds probably didn't migrate, they just
> > > stayed the winter here.
> > >
> > > Blake Iverson
> > > Arlington, WA
> > > coopershwk at hotmail.com
> > >
> > >
> >
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--
Mike Patterson
Astoria, OR
celata at pacifier.com

A child who becomes acquainted with the birds about him
hears every sound and puzzles out its meaning with a cleverness
that amazes those with ears who hear not.

-Neltje Blanchan

http://www.pacifier.com/~mpatters/bird/bird.html