Greetings All

Can't seem to shut up today.

Origin questions on waterfowl are quite dicey. You picked two easy ones as
examples. Lesser WF Geese are rare in the wild and declining. I believe (though
I've not looked into this species) they are not rare in captivity. I saw some
recently in captivity in WA, for instance. Also, their migration route in
eastern Europe is pretty much straight north-south. Less likely to have overshoots
or wrong way migrants making their way to North America. Thus, while being a
relatively poor candidate for natural vagrancy to North American, they are a
fairly good candidate for being an escape.

Tufted Ducks, however, are fairly common vagrants to AK, with flocks of 40+
sometimes appearing. Their occurence south of AK forms a pattern that looks
natural, with birds concentrated on the coasts, particularly the west coast and
Newfoundland, just where you'd expect them. A few records are scattered across
the interior -- not a surprise given the number that appear on the coast. Has
a captive Tufted Duck been found in the wild. UNDOUBTEDLY. However, for any
given TUDU, the chances of it being wild are excellent.

The problem is, there are a lot of tweeners. Barnacle Geese are incredibly
common in captivity. They also breed in Greenland and migrate se (a mirror-image
mistake would take the bird to North America) and places like Spitsbergen and
migrate sw (an overshoot would take them here). Indeed, a bird banded on
Spitsbergen was shot a number of years ago in Newfoundland, if I remember
correctly. If you look at the pattern of Barnacle Goose occurrence in North America,
its a hodgepodge. There are many from the eastern seaboard, but there are a lot
of records from elsewhere, especially when one considers that many records in
the west don't ever see print. And some are at really weird times, or weird
places (like Texas). So, if you're a Rhode Island records committee member, the
decision becomes really tough. Some of your Barnacle Geese are undoubtedly of
wild origin and some are not.

We have two toughies in front of the WA BRC. Pink-footed Goose and Baikal
Teal. Why are these tough when Falcated Duck and Bean Goose were accepted. Well,
both Bean Goose and Falcated Duck have a nicely established pattern of
vagrancy in AK, and FADU are uncommon in captivity (and typically kept by the more
serious aviculturists) and Bean Geese are very rare in captivity. This combo led
to us accepting both. Of course, in each circumstance, there's the chance
we're wrong.

The PF Goose is tough because it's rare in captivity, but not unheard of, and
there is no pattern of vagrancy west of the northeast. The Baikal Teal is
tough because its very popular in captivity, including less serious
aviculturists, but its numbers are booming in the wild. Once a regular vagrant to AK,
though, it's become exceptionally rare there. So, I don't know where we'll go with
these.

In any case, that's a long winded answer to your query. Its all a probability
game, and of course, everyone is free to make one's own decisions and count
what you want to. Some are slam dunks (I don't think I'll be counting that
Bar-headed Goose I saw in Everett any time soon) but other birds are really a
guessing game.

Best Wishes
Steven Mlodinow
Everett WA