Tweets,

Kenneth poses an interesting question. Northern Cardinal would be a review
species in Washington State. In addition to the list of review species
(those already documented in the state) the review list would contain all
birds that have never been seen in Washington.
Northern Cardinals are indeed historically quite sedentary, straying only
short distances from normal breeding areas. Even though Northern Cardinals
breed in Southern Arizona (up and to the Phoenix area I believe), across
southern New Mexico to Texas and then northward through Oklahoma, Nebraska,
South and North Dakota only a handful of records exist from neighboring
states such as Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. I believe there is a single
record from Oregon, and as far as I am aware none in Idaho (unless the ones
Kenneth are referring to will be voted upon in the near future). Northern
Cardinal tends to stay put, or move short distances even in winter.
Painted Bunting is another story. A true migrant, Painted Buntings vacate
breeding grounds and move southward during winter. Large portions of Texas
and Oklahoma host good numbers of Painted Buntings during breeding season.
Not all leave, but most do, with breeding densities of 10-30 birds in a
given area reduced to the occasional bird. This migration pattern is the
very thing that makes a Painted Bunting showing up in northern states in
fall, winter, or early spring a possibility. In fact, the Painted Bunting is
known as a widely ranging vagrant, showing up in places like Ontario, New
York, Montana, and Oregon.
Some studies indicate that this propensity to wind up going in the wrong
direction (i.e. northward instead of southward) is a genetic short-circuit
that instinctually guides the bird the wrong direction. I believe this is
called 'Mirror Effect' or some such thing.
Can a bird legitimately end up in an unusual place? Of course, a Manx
Shearwater observed and well photographed in Central Montana last year is a
testament to that possibility. There are many instances of this across the
country. However, those voting on records within a state (and no I am not
one of them, just a bookkeeper) must weigh the likelihood of any given bird
arriving at a specific location without human assistance.
With the Manx Shearwater this was easy, it didn't ride a car or a boat, no
one keeps a shearwater as a cage bird, so it had to have arrived under its
own power, even though there is no documented cases of vagrancy for the
species.
Painted Buntings show good propensity for vagrancy, but they are also
possible cage birds (illegally I might add) so one must look at the time of
the year and compare other vagrancy records and the times to determine
whether they think the bird arrived under its own power.
Northern Cardinals show little propensity to stray great distances, are
also possible cage birds (illegally again) and seem to show up at odd times.
Also, as Kenneth noted they often show up in pairs or threes, not a likely
vagrant pattern.
Oregon has had three Northern Cardinal sightings. I doubt anyone questioned
the ID, but the likelihood that the birds arrived on their own is much
smaller than many species, and so the birds were not added to the state list
due to origin questions.
Washington has had several sightings of Northern Cardinal as well and I
expect that origin will be the continuing question here as well.
However, the records will remain archived in both states, and should
Northern Cardinals move northward or westward in the next few years, or
begin to show a sudden migration urge, those records will be resurrected and
re-reviewed I am certain.
Many thanks to Ken for a stimulating question, and thanks for allowing me
to be so long-winded about a subject that I find fascinating.

Cheers

Doug Schonewald
Moses Lake, WA
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