Tweets,

I have Juncos here in Preston (King County), albeit in numbers lower than I would expect. The Varied Thrushes are here in good numbers. I've had a couple of groups of 50-100 Robins passing through - completely devouring the Mountain Ash berries in the upper field.

The number of geese passing overhead is amazing - mostly GWF, but one skein of Snows and a single 13 member flock of some small form of Canada. I'd estimate 600 geese have passed overhead since 7:00 am (3 hours). Also had 2 more Sandhills.

I am a weather watcher. The 7 day total rainfall here has been 11.1 inches! Amazing. I monitor the NWS discussions and this morning something really interesting popped up as a possibility for next week. Details below. If you want to watch this discussion thread yourself (much better than the straightforward forecasts and shows how forecasters work) the url is:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/get.php?wfo=sew&pil=AFD&sid=SEW

WATCHING WITH GREAT INTEREST AND CONCERN THE EVOLUTION OF A POWERFUL LOW CENTER OVER THE NE PAC ON TUESDAY. HAS BEEN A LOT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WEST PAC LATELY. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY FROM A SUBTROPICAL-LOOKING LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE MARIANAS WILL GET ENTRAINED INTO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC...IT WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE LAST PARAGRAPH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR AT LEAST THE PAST THREE DAYS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE COAST AND 140W WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MEETING THE METEOROLOGICAL DEFINITION OF A BOMB. SO CONFIDENCE IS RISING PRETTY HIGH THAT A MAJOR LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...SO THE UNRESOLVED QUESTION IS *WHERE* THE LOW WILL FORM AND TRACK. A TRACK OUT AROUND 135-140W WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON WRN WA...AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE INCOMING 06Z GFS. THE 00Z GFS BASICALLY PAINTED A WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR WRN WA WITH A MATURE LOW CENTER PASSING NEAR TATOOSH ISLAND AND A MAJOR WINDSTORM FOR WRN WA. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM TO FAVOR A MORE BENIGN TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CAUSE TO CONTINUE WATCHING THIS SETUP WITH GREAT INTEREST IN THE DAYS TO COME.Rob ConwayPreston, WArobin_birder at hotmail.com
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