Hi Tweeters -
After Marymoor this morning, I headed over to Juanita Bay in Kirkland
to look for the Am. Black Duck. Michael Hobbs & I were eventually
able to find it, hanging out with a group of Mallards in the bay near
the north end of the causeway.

As for Keith's remarks earlier about an August arrival causing him to
be more skeptical than he already was about the origins of the Black
Duck, I gotta say I'm not very convinced.
Here's my reasoning: The last couple weeks have seen a very
noticable move of ducks into the area -- There are lots of ducks
moving into the area right around now, so how is it strange that the
Black Duck would also arrive now? It can't be on a 'typical' Black
Duck schedule, since it is out of range and without other Black Ducks
to migrate with. Given that it has to hook up with other ducks, and
given that other ducks are returning right now, how does an arrival
at this time say anything about the origins of this particular bird?

I don't think an August arrival proves anything one way or another --
The first time an out of range duck appears, the arrival dates are
probably worth paying attention to for clues about origin. But the
2nd or 3rd year? Wild or captive-raised, wouldn't there be so much
noise in the data by now that trying to glean evidence would be a
stretch?

Best,

Matt Bartels
Seattle, WA