One should also note that you wouldn't have this "early spring"
viewpoint if you were in the Eastern US or Northern Europe or Eastern
Asia who have been stuck in a very low Atlantic Oscillation recently
leading to very cold temperatures and snow in the UK (a climate rather
like the PNW). In the Arctic (the other side of that oscillation)
though it is warm than climatic average ("has a positive Average Air
Temperature Anomaly").

More on the negative AO and what it means

<http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2010/01/why-the-us-and-much-of-europe-are-shivering-in-the-cold.ars
>
<http://www2.ucar.edu/magazine/currents/brrr-ao-way-low>

So currently there is a El Nino, an large amplitude MJO and a large
negative AO. No wonder the weather is a bit odd here.

And you can see it in the daily temperatures summarized on Cliff Mass'
blog entries recent daily lows have been above the ("normal") climatic
highs. He also shows the 3 month climate predictions from the Climate
Prediction Center that indicate higher than climatic average
temperatures and lower than average precipitation.

<http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/01/el-nino-snow-and-olympics.html>
<http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/01/wet-and-warm.html>

That said the old adage "one (Barn) Swallow (at Alki) does not make a
summer" is true here (especially when they seem to overwinter at the
UW too :-).

In terms of observation you can't judge from sedentary birds if this
is a "mild winter" PNW (it's not spring yet). Bewick's Wrens and House
Finches (as has been mentioned) sing all through winter with
territorial song (I hear them on Cap Hill in Seattle all through
winter even with snow on the ground). How much of the "firsts heard or
seen" observations are due to observer bias or local microclimate or
other effects?

I guess this is all a rambling (but informative) way of saying there
is variation in weather and we are currently at a pretty extreme end
of the variation. I wouldn't read much into that variation except that
we may have a warmer winter and when we get there perhaps a warmer
spring.

On Jan 16, 2010, at 9:31 AM, Tangren Family wrote:

> For those interested in the details, there is apparently a
> significant Madden/Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave passing around the
> world to which much of our less than typical weather can be
> attributed:
>
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
>
> MJO waves begin as areas of convection in the Indian Ocean, and then
> propagate eastward around the world. A winter signature wave can
> cause extreme cold in the center of North America, followed by heavy
> rain systems hitting the west coast of North America.
>
> As Bill notes, these climate waves are not at all unusual at least
> once in the winter--we have a name for them--Pineapple Express. The
> amplitude of the current one however is remarkable.
>
> --
> Jerry Tangren
> East Wenatchee, WA

--
Kevin Purcell
kevinpurcell at pobox.com
twitter: at kevinpurcell