Hi Tweeters,

The last page of the Introduction of the ABA Birder's Guide to Washington, published in 2003, confidently set forth a prediction "that the state list will break the 500 barrier before the current decade is up in 2010."

At the time of publication the list stood at 478 species. Since then one species has been lost to a lump (Black-backed Wagtail into White Wagtail), but gained back by a split (Cackling Goose from Canada Goose). So the prediction -- unchanged -- was that 22 or more new species would be found in the state by the end of 2010.

The underpinning for the prediction was the assumption that the rate of discovery of new species would remain the same as it had been over the preceding three decades, averaging 10 species every three years. However, as the months crept by in this final year 2010 it began to seem that the rate had slowed, and the prediction was foolhardy.

Until the last couple of weeks. The Lesser Sand-Plover found by Bob Sundstrom at Ocean Shores, and the Canada Warbler discovered at Burbank yesterday by the Dennys, were the 498th and 499th species for Washington (if these records are accepted by the WBRC, and if I have counted correctly).

For those who may care, here are the 21 WBRC-endorsed species added since the ABA Guide came out: Whooper Swan, Baikal Teal, Common Eider, Ashy Storm-Petrel, Glossy Ibis, Crested Caracara (retrospectively), Lesser Sand-Plover, Common Ringed-Plover, Red-necked Stint, Little Stint, Temminck's Stint, Black-tailed Gull, Great Black-backed Gull, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Variegated Flycatcher, Bell's Vireo, Northern Wheatear, Redwing, Canada Warbler, Smith's Longspur, Scarlet Tanager.

Congratulations to all the birders searching out there who brought the list to within spitting distance of the 500 milestone. Not quite four months remain to scare up just one more new species, thereby demonstrating that statistics don't lie, after all, and that the prediction was not totally overconfident.

Hal Opperman
Medina, WA
hal at catharus.net