Greetings All


I will stop beating the drum on this after this message.
An increase in records in Massachusetts does not equal increased probability of occurrence in WA.


If you saw a Purple/Rock Sandpiper in TX, and did not identify it to species, you probably should not count it, if you were to follow the spirit (and perhaps the letter) of ABA guidelines. That being said, there is a well established pattern of Purple Sandpipers occurring in the Continent's interior and the Gulf Coast. Rock Sandpiper has no pattern.


I am not even certain why Scott brought up his TX Purple Sand. In reality, the fact that he has counted that as a Purple Sand means he has done so based on established data/patterns. Guess what? Using similar reasoning, the Barnacle Goose should be accepted as an escapee.


John P is correct that there are multiple complicated scenarios, but they all start with a Barnacle Goose free-flying in WA. These have occurred a number of times in WA, and throughout North America, and have done so for decades. The number on the northeast coast has always been greater than that in the rest of the Continent. The number on the east coast has sky rocketed during the last decade or so. The number across the interior of North America has not.


Again, this strongly argues that any Barnacle Goose w. of the Atlantic Seaboard and adjacent areas are escapees. The relative weight of various scenarios are not close to even. In the case of PF Goose, the WBRC was being conservative. If a pattern of records occur, especially from places in central Canada or more records from Pac NW, the WBRC will revisit its decision, and I think, likely reverse it. If....


However, with Barnacle Geese, the WBRC is not being conservative, it is using established data. That doesn't mean that there has never been a wild Barnacle Goose west of Pennsylvania, but given the hundreds of records.... it does suggest that the odds of any given bird being wild is nearly zero, lower the further west and south one goes.


Rather than using a gut feeling to judge the provenance of these birds, especially when deep-seated desires can seep into decision making, I would suggest using data. And in this case, the data strongly suggest that mid-continent and west coast Barnacle Geese are from captivity, where... again... it is worth mentioning that they are commonly kept.


There have been as many Black Swans recorded in WA as Barnacle Geese. Most have been from the fall to spring period. Should I tick that off on my list too? Oh, yes... coincidentally, one of those was this fall or winter at Ridgefield. Hmmmm.


Finally, let us avoid the intellectual sophistry of comparing apples and oranges, such as the Variegated Fly and Purple/Rock Sand arguments. Using such thinking, I should consider "counting" the Nutmeg and Chestnut Mannakins I saw in Snohomish County, both found in November... Hey, A PATTERN! Maybe swept by the Pineapple Express from Malaysia to WA?


But yes, as is always the case, one should always feel free to count whatever one wishes on one's personal list. I know one person who ticked the Red Bishop (either the Ridgefield.. there's Ridgefield again, or the Skagit County bird, can't remember), just because she liked seeing it. That is fine. But she did not delude herself into thinking the bird flew here from Africa on its own power.


Best Wishes
Steve Mlodinow