Subject: [Tweeters] FOY2013 birding *powerball*
Date: Dec 29 05:56:04 2012
From: Pterodroma at aol.com - Pterodroma at aol.com


Bored? Need something to do first thing New Year's morning? Here's a
little game I traditionally play each New Year's Day first thing in the
morning; try and predict IN chronological sequence the first ten species
identifiable by sight or sound to show up in the yard. ...Or where ever you decide
to start 2013.

No cheating now..., list your first ten picks 1 thru 10 before you go to
bed New Year's Eve. My launch begins at the crack of dawn and armed with a
cup of coffee (or hot cocoa), I head out to the back porch and just sit
there and let the show unfold. With each new arrival, I record the time.
Usually it takes me about an hour to finish with #10, at least in my yard,
probably much quicker for others depending on your location.

It's one thing to get all the predicted first ten at all. I never have,
but Jan 1, 2012, I came close and scored 9 out 10, my best to date in 12+
years (7 out of 10 in 2011, etc.) although only about half in the predicted
'seeded' chronological sequence. The *powerball* aspect here is to actually
record all ten species in the exact chronological sequence as predicted 1
thru 10. Dunno, but odds might be better to win the $550-million cash
Powerball than predict the first ten birds, but maybe not. I start when
nothing is stirring, not even a mouse. Here in my Eastgate yard on the cold dark
north slope south of I-90, the action begins at ~0730 (plus or minus 5-10
min or so depending on light, cloud cover, fog, rain or not, or clear.
Then, one by one by one, the show unfolds.

Unlike all previous years, this month I've been practicing ... doing some
dry run sessions each morning on the back porch, 19 mornings so far. Top
#1 seed again like EVERY New Year FOY, Anna's Hummingbird, and it's won
every single year now since ~1998 so far [except that one year, 2000, when I
skipped out and ran off to Chelan Co. and Northern Hawk Owl turned out to
simply be not only #1 for the year 2000, but the 'new' millennium as well
regardless of categories..., sighhh..., oh well, what a #1 starter bird for
that year & new century!

To reminisce (or drool), here's the fun account and story dredged up from
the dusty 'tweeters' archive,
SEE: _Y2K #001 - NORTHERN HAWK OWL_
(https://mailman1.u.washington.edu/mailman/htdig/tweeters/2000-January/007852.html)

[_https://mailman1.u.washington.edu/mailman/htdig/tweeters/2000-January/007852.html_
(https://mailman1.u.washington.edu/mailman/htdig/tweeters/2000-January/007852.html) ]
No need to EVER chase that bird again!!! Anywhere, EVER!!! ...unless of
course one shows up in Bellevue's Lake Hills Greenbelt - not likely anytime
soon :-))

So far, these practice runs lately have thrown in a couple wild cards, and
the order tends to be somewhat weather dependent, good or bad each
morning, so I will have to consider that and armed with the likely forecast for
New Year's morning. This has never ever been an issue in all years past, but
now there is the very real chance that MERLIN could upset the Anna's top
seed and 12-year reign as champion since my resident 'chittering' female has
rolled in here at #1 twice and #2 twice, all four in really close calls
with the Anna's by mere seconds! Some mornings she's not around at all,
others almost obnoxiously so, so that little bugger is really hard to predict.
Dare I go out on a limb and include Merlin to my predicted 2013 first ten?
Another wilder wild card, flyover Cackling Geese (#2 one morning but the
odds of that happening again probably thousands to one). Then there's the
unpredictable matter of the roving flyover winter finches, Pine Siskins
and Red Crossbills in particular, some days, half the time, they're here for
a few seconds and gone, others not at all, and those critters are just a
crap shoot as usual, no predictable pattern.

I don't expect to score all ten out of ten, much less win the
chronological *powerball*, but I will be disappointed if Anna's Hummingbird gets upset
by the Merlin since my Anna's will be the #1 top seed no matter what. I
haven't worked out the rest yet but will have done so hard copy listed before
bedtime New Year's Eve.

And what exactly do I win for all this? Nothing really other than the
satisfaction and fun after which all the pressure is OFF for the whole rest of
the year (yea!), thus freeing up all the remaining 8,751hrs (525,060
minutes, or for the truly anal out to make every second count, 31,503,600
seconds) remaining in 2013 before starting it all over again January 1, 2014.
Life is short; each tick-tock of the clock counts!

So if any of you 'tweets' want to play too, share your results January 1.
May you all have a happy and wonderous birding New Year!

Richard Rowlett
Bellevue (Eastgate), WA
Pterodroma AT aol.com